1984, Sikh revolts in Penjab and Indian attacks against Siachen
1986, the Brasstacks operation
1990, death of Rajiv Ghandi
1992, fall of the Soviet Union and diplomatic Indo American revival
1996, the Kashmir election
1998, nuclear proliferation on the move
1999, the Kargil crisis
2000, the recrudescence of terrorist acts worsen the conflict
September 11 2001
2002, a new bigger conflict
December 2003, attacks against président Pervèz Mousharraf
Last political events, signs of a possible outcome of the conflict ?
May 2004, the defeat of BJP at the indian legislaive elections

1984, Sikh revolts in Penjab and Indian attacks against Siachen:

1986, the Brasstacks operation:

A series of operations close to Indian Sind, in order to test new Soviet weapons, created a fearful reaction from Pakistan regarding the use of real ammunition on the Pakistani territory and a possible identical operation compared to that of 1971 in Eastern Pakistan. Pakistan moves a strong division to neighbours close to Penjab. India then cancels the operation.

1990, death of Rajiv Ghandi:

The Jammu-and-Kashmir are placed under direct presidential administration. Rajiv Gandhi is assassinated on May 21 by members of the LTTE, the release movement of northern Sri Lanka.

1992, fall of the Soviet Union and diplomatic Indo American revival:

Moujahidines on a Soviet armoured tank

The fall of the Soviet Union drags its strategic support of the Indien conflict along with it. India turns to the Israeli state for a new agreement and hopes that common work on terrorism, which makes the 2 countries suffer, can be planned. There is no doubt that the India Israéli partnership is a first major step towards a return to the normalization of diplomatic American relations, which were quite fragile at that time. At the same time, the destroying of the Babur or Babri Masjid mosque, supposed by built on the site of a Hindu temple creates riots between communities, Hindu and Moslem woman in the whole of India.

1996, the Kashmir election:

The exceptionally high rate of partition of 30% mark these elections. The population states by this vote, its refusal of war and affirms its will of autonomy. This new separatist action introduces another political difficulty that India and Pakistan would have liked to avoid because India always refused to take into account the Kashmir identity who’s Independence was forseen by article 370 of the Indian constitution but which was never applied.

1998, nuclear proliferation on the move:

Ballistic Pakistani missile Gauri II

In July 1998, an attempt of reconciliation of the 2 countries is conceived concerning talks between president Nawaz Sharif and Indian Prime Minister AB Vajpayee, but thereafter India and Pakistan proceed to a series of nuclear tests which ruined the rare attempts at reconciliation ever made. India refuses in 1996 to ratify the nuclear treaty of nonproliferation and proceeds to a series of 5 underground tests on May 11, 1998. Pakistan answers by a series of official tests, another nucléar conflict, and this becomes a new international crisis. The Pakistani nuclear weapon is considered essential regarding the international question of the Kashmir. History reveals that this Pakistani strategy is partly successful, thanks to the fast and efficient intervenience of the Westerners in the conflict ever since, in particular the United States (for which, the Pakistani tests represent a failure compared to the American policy of nuclear nonproliferation). One then might suspects China of having played an important part in the Pakistan manufacture of the bomb. Iran (always without officiall nuclear weapons but whose missiles»Shabah-3»are probably equipped with nuclear warheads) and Korea probably received help from Pakistan. The Pakistani nuclear weapon is a threat to the Indien nuclear power which is a threat to the first official Chinese nuclear equipment both were strong opponents of the Soviet enemy and the Americans of at a certain time. The conflict of the Kashmir is a strong nuclear vector of the proliferation in the world.

1999, the Kargil crisis :

In May of this year, Kashmirians freedom fighters aided by the special armed forces of the Pakistani army Infiltrated beyond the control line and went downstream from the Siachen glacier, during military operations and this, in front of the Indienne army. This crisis was at first, set up by Pakistan just after the remote events of Kosovo: Pakistan who on the contrary to India always desired an international debate of the Kashmir question then hoped for a solution of an UNO choice as in Kosovo. UNO could then pressure India to organize a referendum on the attachment of Kashmir which, as one knows, could be favorable to Pakistan, if ever it were organized. But this strategy is a strategy of despair when one knows the weak role that UNO played in the solution of the Balkans conflict.

These operations which were the wish of General Musharaf were condemned by the international community, India reacted firmly and engaged significant military means on the ground, 20 000 soldiers were deployed, some ten planes and bombers flew on a major front line which is 120 kms long, blocking the Pakistan positions up to the heights. July 10, 1999, the 2 countries decided on a mutual withdrawal of the zones of combat.

But this withdrawal of the troops caused a serious crisis within the Pakistani army and did not forgive President M. Sharif who yielded to the pressure of the United States. In October, Pervès Musharraf reverses the Government without bloodshed and issues the emergency state. This putch caused great concern in the occident and resulted in a series of measurements and declarations. The public warning came from the International Monetary director of the International Monetary Funds (IMF) who declared that Islamabad would not receive any installments on the loan of 1,6 billion dollar. In London, the Commonwealth announced that it would forbid the military junta to take part at the summit, Karachi Stock Exchange plunged by 7,36%, Wall Street by 2,7%. Kofi Annan exhortes the Pakistani soldiers»to try to return to a civil government as soon as possible". India again places its forces in a maximum state of alert but P. Mousharraf publicly informed India, without mentioning it directly, that they should not try to benefit from the weakness of the Pakistan situation in order to attack the Pakistani interest.

The nuclear powers recognized since the 1998 tests, did not prevent the new crisis of 1999 and political instability. The crisis composed of significant risks between the 2 nuclear countries is however only a crisis, and not a war. In itself It seems that the nuclear dissuasion avoided sidesteps and the quick arrangement of the conflict between the 2 countries, as well as the reactions of the international community and that in particular of the United States (helped by Chinese neutrality) all played an important role. However, it is known today that the use of the nuclear weapon was seriously considered by the Pakistan army during this conflict.

2000, the recrudescence of terrorist acts worsen the conflict:

Victim of the conflict

October 1, 2001, a terrorist attack on the assembly of Jammu and Kashmir leaves 40 dead. The bonds of Afghan
terrorism and Kashmiri are very obvious with the fall of the Taliban regime in November 2001 quoted by the jihad islamist on the highlands of the Kashmir. New tensions came up after the attack carried out on December 13, 2001
against the Indian Parliament, Delhi accused islamists groups supported by the Pakistan. The attack leaves 9 victims however, uncreadibly, not one Indian minister was killed or wounded.

Indian soldiers

On the other hand, acts of cruelties of the Indian army against the Moslems Kashmiri are current (disappearences, tortures) and are stated to be like permanent aggression of the Moslem people by Pakistan». This mixture of terrorism and guerrilla worsen the Pakistani Indo relations. Fighting begins again along the control line and the 2 countries station their troops again at the border who has never really existed. In 2002, India and Pakistan are again close to war with nearly a million soldiers stationed at the two parts of the border.

September nine eleven:

Pakistani demonstration

Terrorists Islamists

After the attacks launched by Al Qaïda and the reaction of the United States who is ready to strike Afghanistan, India naturally offered its military bases to the American bombers and planes but this attitude was not welcomed by Pakistan who accuses India in September 19, to wish to recover the American alliance for its own benefit. Pervèz Mousharraf announces his total support to the United States. This outstanding speech is the main turn around of strategic alliances in Central Asia and at the same time it represents the revival of the Américan-Pakistani relations.

2002, a new bigger conflict:

Pakistani 's Manisfestation

Indian demonstration

During this year, the terrorist attacks in Jammu on May 14, and on May 21 in Srinagar as well as the bombed car in Bombay made the situation worse again, cancelling the timid try of goodwill of the 2 countries and which ended up by a Handshake between Pakistani President Pervèz Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who were invited to discuss Kashmir at the meeting of Katmandou in January 2002. Pakistan proceeds to a series of missile shootings. In May, the Indian Prime Minister tells his troops that the moment of a»decisive combat»had came.The Pakistani President answers that»if the war is imposed on the Moslems, the Moslems will not show cowardice». June 6, the confusion continues when the British newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, entitled»India projects a nuclear war from now on until weeks to come, and radio-controlled nuclear bombs were charged on mirage 2001 and Mig 27 planes», and the projects of invading the Pakistani territory was even published in the newspapers.

The nuclear conflict risk was taken very serious by the Westerners, the embassies panic and the embassy of Great Brittain was evacueated in Delhi. The United States return concerned and pressure Pakistan, thereafter Pervèz Musharraf informs an American emissary on June 6 that its country will “definitively prevent “ the infiltration of armed groups coming from Azad Kashmir, the pakistanis part, India was content with this announcement, the dangerous strategy of Indian’s higher bet was paying off. However President Pervèz Mousharraf’s speech has only few results on the terrorists activity of the Kashmir.

During this time, new elections (the first time since 1977) are organized, India wanting to prove its goodwill to the word and the Kashmirians by installing ballot boxes, but these elections were the most fatal of the Kashmir history, 527 people are killed, terrorists organized terror to dissuade the population to go voting .The elections come up with a coalition of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Congress Party, respecting and making use of human rights, and agreed to a new compromising policy with a minimum common program, the wish and need to reconcile the communities of the province, the release of political prisoners and respect of human rights.

December 2003, attacks against président Pervèz Mousharraf:

Pervèz Musharraf

Atal Behari Vajpayee

Mr Perves Mousharraf miracuously escape two attacks of a bombed trapped car, one on December 14 th, the other the 25th, between Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Financed by Al Qaida, through the intermediary of the Islamists mouvement, these attacks were firmly condemned by India.

Last political events, signs of a possible outcome of the conflict ?

Today, it is important, for all, to find a solution. India, who took the initiative to join the dialogue in April 2003, seeks to become a world power. Strong by economic growth and its democratic state, it has a place with the UNO Security Councel but must, for that reason, get out of the Kashmir mess. It seems to agree, more than ever, to make concessions which they proved by the real modernisation with which the Indian leaders greeted the revelations made on the escapes of the Pakistani nuclear program. An additional sign of goodwill was in the beginning of mid January during the discussions with the representatives of the Hall Party Hurriyat Conference, a coalition of moderate separatist groups. From the Pakistani side, the declaration of President Mousharraf at the end of last year, announcing that Pakistan was ready, for the first time since years, to give up the organization af a referandum concerning the Kashmir, as well as to accept and include the fate of the province in “total discussion” , indicate a real viewpoint change. It is true that the cachmerian separatis ended up becoming a threat to President Mousharraf himself of which proof can be found because of the last attac from which he escaped in December 2003. Furthermore, the Kashmiri movements which fight for the annexing of the province to Pakistan became an Islamic reference mark and their increasing influence on the Pakistani companies worried the President. Extract of french newspaper l'Humanité (17.02.04)

Finally, there is no doubt that the question of the terrorist support to Kashmir by Pakistan became the main condition for new Pakistani Indo negotiations, the major settlement of the conflict.

May 2004, the defeat of BJP at the indian legislative elections :

In a Srinagar street

Sonja Gandhi won the legistrative elections in India, after a poll marathon which lasted three weeks. Pakistan neighbour and rival of India, quickly reacted to the announcement of the results. “We hope that an unspecified change of government in India will not affect the process of peace” a member of the Pakistani government declared. The Congress immediately reassured its neighbours and insisted that they were engaged in a work to create a lasting peace in the area. “Release, May 13, 2004 by Liberation”.

Révision B 19/12/04 (http://blankonthemap.free.fr)

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